Agentic Commerce Partnerships 2026: Every Retailer Deal With ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude
Published October 21, 2026
Retailers and AI companies have spent the past year signing deals that let shoppers find products inside chatbots such as ChatGPT and Gemini, and in some cases buy them there, a practice the industry calls agentic commerce. The first deals put checkout inside the chat. Within six months OpenAI moved away from that model, and retailers started asking for their own apps and their own checkout pages instead, so we looked at which deals have been signed and which of them are still running.
Our analysts built a deal-by-deal tracker of the agentic commerce partnerships that OpenAI, Google and Anthropic announced with retailers, commerce platforms and payment companies from April 2025 through October 20, 2026. Each deal was checked against the company announcement or the first trade press report, then classified by deal type, retail category, current status and any disclosed fee. The tracker counts 55 deals, 52 of them in the U.S. Google has 21 of them, and 12 of the 18 checkout deals, in which the AI platform completes the purchase for the shopper, are Google's.
In the following sections, we count the deals by AI platform and quarter, list every deal for ChatGPT, Gemini and Claude, break the deals down by type, status and retail category, show which retailers and payment companies work with more than one platform, and set the tracker beside published results and forecasts for agentic commerce.
Agentic Commerce Partnerships by AI Platform and Quarter
This section counts deals by the quarter they were announced. A deal is one dated agreement between one AI company and one partner, so a retailer that signed with two AI companies counts twice.
| AI Platform | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | Q4 2025 | Q1 2026 | Q2 2026 | Q3 2026 | Q4 2026 (to Oct. 20) | Total | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT (OpenAI) | 1 | 4 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 26 | 47.3% |
| Google (Gemini and AI Mode) | 0 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 38.2% |
| Claude (Anthropic) | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 14.5% |
| Total | 2 | 6 | 11 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 55 | 100.0% |
- OpenAI has the most deals, with 26 of 55, or 47.3%. Google has 21 (38.2%) and Anthropic has 8 (14.5%).
- Q1 2026 was the busiest quarter, with 20 deals. Google announced 9 of them on a single day, January 11, 2026, when it released the Universal Commerce Protocol.
- Deal announcements nearly doubled from 19 in 2025 to 36 in the first ten months of 2026. The 2026 deals also changed shape, from ChatGPT's own checkout toward retailer apps, product feeds and Google's shared cart.

ChatGPT Agentic Commerce Partnerships (OpenAI)
OpenAI has 26 deals. The first wave, from September to December 2025, centered on Instant Checkout, which let shoppers pay for an item without leaving ChatGPT. The 2026 deals are mostly retailer apps inside ChatGPT and product feeds for its shopping results.
| Date | Partner | Deal Type | What the Deal Does | Category | Status | Disclosed Fee or Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2025 | Visa | Payments or protocol | Launch partner in Visa Intelligent Commerce, which lets AI agents pay with tokenized Visa cards | Payments | Live | Undisclosed | Visa |
| Sept. 29, 2025 | Etsy | Checkout | Instant Checkout: buy from U.S. Etsy sellers inside ChatGPT. OpenAI stopped prioritizing native checkout in March 2026 | Marketplace | Changed | Fee on completed purchases, rate not disclosed | OpenAI; CNBC |
| Sept. 29, 2025 | Shopify | Checkout | Instant Checkout for Shopify merchants such as Glossier, SKIMS, Spanx and Vuori. Purchases moved to merchants' own checkout in March 2026 | Commerce platform | Changed | 4% of ChatGPT checkout sales, as reported by The Information | OpenAI; PYMNTS; CNBC |
| Sept. 29, 2025 | Stripe | Payments or protocol | Co-developed the Agentic Commerce Protocol (ACP) that powers ChatGPT shopping; ACP was extended to product discovery in March 2026 | Payments | Live | Undisclosed | Stripe; OpenAI |
| Sept. 30, 2025 | Mastercard | Payments or protocol | Mastercard Agent Pay and agentic tokens usable in ChatGPT Instant Checkout | Payments | Changed | Undisclosed | Mastercard |
| Oct. 14, 2025 | Walmart | Checkout | Instant Checkout for Walmart and Sam's Club items (about 200,000 products). Pilot ended in March 2026 | Mass merchant | Ended | Undisclosed | Walmart; The Paypers; CNBC |
| Oct. 14, 2025 | Salesforce | Checkout | Agentforce Commerce merchants sell through ChatGPT Instant Checkout using ACP | Commerce platform | Changed | Undisclosed | Salesforce |
| Oct. 28, 2025 | PayPal | Payments or protocol | PayPal adopts ACP; PayPal wallet checkout and merchant catalogs in ChatGPT planned for 2026 | Payments | Changed | Undisclosed | PayPal |
| Nov. 19, 2025 | Target | App | Target app in ChatGPT: multi-item baskets, fresh food, Drive Up and Order Pickup | Mass merchant | Live | Undisclosed | Target |
| Dec. 8, 2025 | Instacart | App | Instacart app in ChatGPT with grocery checkout inside the app | Grocery and delivery | Live | Undisclosed | Instacart |
| Dec. 10, 2025 | Shopify | Catalog feed | Agentic Storefronts syndicate Shopify merchants' catalogs to ChatGPT from the Shopify admin | Commerce platform | Live | Undisclosed | Shopify; CNBC |
| Dec. 17, 2025 | DoorDash | App | DoorDash grocery app in ChatGPT; checkout completes in the DoorDash app | Grocery and delivery | Live | Undisclosed | DoorDash |
| Jan. 12, 2026 | JD Sports | Checkout | One-click purchases through ChatGPT via commercetools and Stripe's Agentic Commerce Suite, starting in the U.S. | Apparel and footwear | Announced | Undisclosed | JD Sports Fashion |
| March 24, 2026 | Walmart | App | Walmart app in ChatGPT built on its Sparky assistant, with account linking, loyalty and Walmart payments | Mass merchant | Live | Undisclosed | OpenAI; Retail Dive |
| March 24, 2026 | Sephora | App | Sephora app in ChatGPT with Beauty Insider linking; in-app checkout planned | Beauty | Live | Undisclosed | Sephora |
| March 24, 2026 | Target | Catalog feed | Product feed and promotions shared with ChatGPT through ACP for product discovery | Mass merchant | Live | Undisclosed | Retail Dive |
| March 24, 2026 | Nordstrom | Catalog feed | Product feed shared with ChatGPT through ACP for product discovery | Department store | Live | Undisclosed | Retail Dive |
| March 24, 2026 | Lowe's | Catalog feed | Product feed shared with ChatGPT through ACP for product discovery | Home and home improvement | Live | Undisclosed | Retail Dive |
| March 24, 2026 | Best Buy | Catalog feed | Product feed shared with ChatGPT through ACP for product discovery | Electronics | Live | Undisclosed | Retail Dive |
| March 24, 2026 | The Home Depot | Catalog feed | Product feed shared with ChatGPT through ACP for product discovery | Home and home improvement | Live | Undisclosed | Retail Dive |
| March 24, 2026 | Wayfair | Catalog feed | Product feed shared with ChatGPT through ACP for product discovery | Home and home improvement | Live | Undisclosed | Retail Dive |
| Aug. 5, 2026 | Albertsons (Safeway) | App | Safeway plugin in ChatGPT builds a cart; checkout redirects to Safeway | Grocery and delivery | Live | Undisclosed | Albertsons Companies; Grocery Dive |
| Aug. 25, 2026 | Carrefour Belgium | App | Grocery assistant in ChatGPT builds baskets; orders complete on Carrefour's site | Grocery and delivery | Live | Undisclosed | Retail Systems |
| Sept. 1, 2026 | GS Retail (South Korea) | App | Plugin shows items on sale at GS25, GS The Fresh and Wine25 Plus | Grocery and delivery | Live | Undisclosed | Seoul Economic Daily |
| Sept. 6, 2026 | Gmarket (South Korea) | App | Plugin for product search and recommendations across Gmarket's marketplace | Marketplace | Live | Undisclosed | Seoul Economic Daily |
| Oct. 19, 2026 | Ulta Beauty | App | Plugin builds AI product bundles that transfer to the Ulta Beauty bag for checkout | Beauty | Live | Undisclosed | Chain Store Age |
- 6 of OpenAI's deals were built around Instant Checkout. On March 24, 2026, OpenAI said the first version of Instant Checkout "did not offer the level of flexibility that we aspire to provide" and let merchants use their own checkout, so five of those deals changed and Walmart's checkout pilot ended.
- All 13 of OpenAI's deals since that date are apps inside ChatGPT or product feeds for its shopping results. None of them is built on ChatGPT's own Instant Checkout.
- Three of OpenAI's retail deals are outside the U.S.: Carrefour Belgium in August 2026, and GS Retail and Gmarket in South Korea in September 2026. All three are apps inside ChatGPT, and two of them, Carrefour Belgium and GS Retail, are grocers.
Gemini and Google AI Mode Agentic Commerce Partnerships
Google has 21 deals across the Gemini app and AI Mode in Google Search. Many of them run on the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), a standard Google released with five retailers and platforms in January 2026 that keeps the retailer as the seller of record.
| Date | Partner | Deal Type | What the Deal Does | Category | Status | Disclosed Fee or Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 16, 2025 | AP2 coalition (60+ firms incl. Mastercard, American Express, PayPal, Adyen) | Payments or protocol | Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), an open standard for agent-initiated payments, launched with more than 60 organizations | Payments | Live | Undisclosed | Google Cloud |
| Sept. 17, 2025 | PayPal | Payments or protocol | Multiyear partnership; PayPal to be a payment option in checkout on Gemini and AI Mode | Payments | Announced | Undisclosed | PayPal; Google |
| Nov. 13, 2025 | Wayfair | Checkout | Agentic checkout in AI Mode and Search, completed on the merchant's site with Google Pay | Home and home improvement | Live | Undisclosed | Google; PYMNTS |
| Nov. 13, 2025 | Chewy | Checkout | Agentic checkout in AI Mode and Search, completed on the merchant's site with Google Pay | Pet | Live | Undisclosed | |
| Nov. 13, 2025 | Quince | Checkout | Agentic checkout in AI Mode and Search, completed on the merchant's site with Google Pay | Apparel and footwear | Live | Undisclosed | |
| Nov. 13, 2025 | Shopify | Checkout | Select Shopify merchants in agentic checkout; direct checkout later on by default for eligible U.S. stores | Commerce platform | Live | No added fee for now, as reported by The Information | Google; PYMNTS; Search Engine Journal |
| Jan. 11, 2026 | Universal Commerce Protocol (co-developed with Shopify, Etsy, Wayfair, Target, Walmart) | Payments or protocol | Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP), an open standard for agent shopping from discovery to post-purchase | Payments | Live | Undisclosed | |
| Jan. 11, 2026 | Walmart | App | Walmart and Sam's Club experience inside Gemini built on UCP; Walmart is in Universal Cart | Mass merchant | Live | Undisclosed | Walmart; Search Engine Journal |
| Jan. 11, 2026 | Target | Checkout | Buy Target items in AI Mode and the Gemini app with Google Pay, linked to Target Circle | Mass merchant | Live | Undisclosed | Google; Target |
| Jan. 11, 2026 | Etsy | Checkout | Etsy checkout in AI Mode and the Gemini app, live from February 2026 | Marketplace | Live | Undisclosed | Google; PYMNTS |
| Jan. 11, 2026 | Lowe's | App | Business Agent, a branded sales assistant on Search | Home and home improvement | Live | Undisclosed | |
| Jan. 11, 2026 | Michaels | App | Business Agent, a branded sales assistant on Search | Arts and crafts | Live | Undisclosed | |
| Jan. 11, 2026 | Poshmark | App | Business Agent, a branded sales assistant on Search | Marketplace | Live | Undisclosed | |
| Jan. 11, 2026 | Reebok | App | Business Agent, a branded sales assistant on Search | Apparel and footwear | Live | Undisclosed | |
| Jan. 11, 2026 | The Home Depot | Checkout | Plans to take part in agentic shopping in AI Mode and the Gemini app | Home and home improvement | Announced | Undisclosed | The Home Depot |
| Jan. 12, 2026 | JD Sports | Checkout | One-click purchases through Gemini via commercetools and Stripe, starting in the U.S. | Apparel and footwear | Announced | Undisclosed | JD Sports Fashion |
| March 24, 2026 | Gap Inc. | Checkout | Checkout in Gemini and AI Mode for Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic and Athleta with Google Pay | Apparel and footwear | Announced | Undisclosed | CNBC |
| May 19, 2026 | Instacart | App | Instacart in Gemini builds a live cart; orders complete on Instacart | Grocery and delivery | Live | Undisclosed | Instacart |
| May 20, 2026 | Nike | Checkout | In-cart checkout or cart transfer in Universal Cart, live in the U.S. in October 2026 | Apparel and footwear | Live | Undisclosed | Google; Search Engine Journal |
| May 20, 2026 | Sephora | Checkout | In-cart checkout or cart transfer in Universal Cart, live in the U.S. in October 2026 | Beauty | Live | Undisclosed | Google; Search Engine Journal |
| May 20, 2026 | Ulta Beauty | Checkout | In-cart checkout or cart transfer in Universal Cart, live in the U.S. in October 2026 | Beauty | Live | Undisclosed | Google; Search Engine Journal |
- Google signed 5 deals after OpenAI's March 2026 change, and 4 of them are checkout deals. Gap Inc. said it chose Gemini for checkout because Google's approach gives retailers more control over the shopping experience.
- Universal Cart, which Google announced in May 2026 and launched in the U.S. on October 15, 2026, lets shoppers fill one cart with items from several retailers and pay with Google Pay or send the cart to the retailer's own site.
- Four Google deals are still waiting to launch: PayPal as a payment option in Gemini and AI Mode checkout, Gap Inc.'s checkout, which Gap described as imminent in March 2026, The Home Depot's planned agentic shopping, and JD Sports' one-click purchases through commercetools and Stripe.
Claude Agentic Commerce Partnerships (Anthropic)
Anthropic has 8 deals, the fewest of the three. Only two let people shop inside Claude itself: Instacart's grocery connector and the Shop connector from Shopify. The rest are payments deals and partners for a blueprint Anthropic released in September 2026 to help retailers build shopping agents on their own websites and apps.
| Date | Partner | Deal Type | What the Deal Does | Category | Status | Disclosed Fee or Value | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2025 | Visa | Payments or protocol | Launch partner in Visa Intelligent Commerce, which lets AI agents pay with tokenized Visa cards | Payments | Live | Undisclosed | Visa |
| April 23, 2026 | Instacart | App | Instacart connector in Claude builds a synced grocery cart; orders complete on Instacart | Grocery and delivery | Live | Undisclosed | Instacart |
| May 13, 2026 | PayPal | Payments or protocol | Claude for Small Business connects to PayPal for invoicing and refunds, with owner approval | Payments | Live | Undisclosed | PayPal |
| Sept. 2, 2026 | Shopify | Retailer-built agent | Public code that runs Anthropic's shopping agent on Shopify stores, with checkout on Shopify | Commerce platform | Live | Undisclosed | Anthropic; Digital Commerce 360 |
| Sept. 2, 2026 | Visa | Retailer-built agent | Partner bringing Anthropic's commerce agent blueprint to its merchant network | Payments | Live | Undisclosed | Anthropic; Digital Commerce 360 |
| Sept. 2, 2026 | Mastercard | Retailer-built agent | Will offer Anthropic's commerce agent blueprint through Mastercard Agent Suite for Merchants | Payments | Announced | Undisclosed | Anthropic; Mastercard |
| Sept. 2, 2026 | Accenture | Retailer-built agent | Partner deploying Anthropic's commerce agent blueprint for clients | Consulting | Live | Undisclosed | Anthropic; Digital Commerce 360 |
| Oct. 13, 2026 | Shopify (Shop app) | Checkout | Shop connector in Claude searches Shopify Catalog and completes Shop Pay checkout | Commerce platform | Live | Undisclosed | Shopify; Anthropic |
- Claude has one deal with a retailer, Instacart, and no checkout partnership with a mass merchant. The Paypers reported in March 2026 that Walmart was in discussions with Anthropic about bringing its Sparky assistant to Claude, but no deal had been announced by October 20, 2026.
- Anthropic says retailers running shopping agents built on Claude have seen carts up to 35% larger and shoppers 60% more likely to complete a purchase. Those figures come from Anthropic and have not been independently verified.
- Visa is the one partner that signed with Anthropic twice: as a launch partner for Visa Intelligent Commerce in April 2025 and as a partner for the commerce blueprint in September 2026.
Agentic Commerce Deal Types: Checkout, Apps, Catalog Feeds and Payments
The deals take five forms. Checkout deals let the AI platform complete the purchase for the shopper, inside the chat or through the platform's own cart. App deals put a retailer's own shopping assistant inside the platform, and catalog feeds send product data so the retailer's items appear in shopping results. Payments and protocol deals set the rules for how an AI agent pays, and retailer-built agent deals help retailers run shopping agents on their own websites.
| Deal Type | ChatGPT (OpenAI) | Google (Gemini and AI Mode) | Claude (Anthropic) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Checkout | 5 | 12 | 1 | 18 |
| App | 10 | 6 | 1 | 17 |
| Catalog feed | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Payments or protocol | 4 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| Retailer-built agent | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Total | 26 | 21 | 8 | 55 |
- Checkout is the most common deal type, with 18 deals, followed by apps with 17. Google has 12 of the checkout deals and OpenAI has 10 of the app deals.
- All 7 catalog feed deals are with OpenAI. Six of them were announced on March 24, 2026, when Target, Nordstrom, Lowe's, Best Buy, The Home Depot and Wayfair began sending product feeds to ChatGPT.
- The split shows two different bets. Google is building a checkout that many retailers share, while OpenAI now sends shoppers to each retailer's own app or website to pay.

Status of Agentic Commerce Deals: Live, Announced, Changed and Ended
This section shows where each deal stood on October 20, 2026. A deal is live when the shopping or payment feature has launched, and announced when no launch has been confirmed. Changed means the deal was built around ChatGPT's Instant Checkout, which OpenAI stopped prioritizing in March 2026.
| AI Platform | Live | Announced | Changed | Ended | Total | Share Live |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT (OpenAI) | 19 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 26 | 73.1% |
| Google (Gemini and AI Mode) | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 81.0% |
| Claude (Anthropic) | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 87.5% |
| Total | 43 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 55 | 78.2% |
- 43 of the 55 deals, or 78.2%, are live. Every changed or ended deal is OpenAI's, and all 6 were announced between September 29 and October 28, 2025.
- Walmart's experience shows why. Walmart made about 200,000 products available through Instant Checkout, and Walmart executive Daniel Danker told WIRED that conversion rates were three times lower for purchases made inside ChatGPT than for those sent to Walmart's website.
- Several of the changed deals carried on in another form. Walmart now runs its own app inside ChatGPT, and Shopify merchants still appear in ChatGPT shopping results with checkout on their own stores.

Agentic Commerce Deals by Retail Category
Of the 55 deals, 37 are with retailers and marketplaces. The other 18 are with commerce platforms such as Shopify and Salesforce, with payment companies and protocol groups, and with one consulting firm.
| Category | ChatGPT (OpenAI) | Google (Gemini and AI Mode) | Claude (Anthropic) | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mass merchant | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| Grocery and delivery | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| Apparel and footwear | 1 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| Home and home improvement | 3 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| Beauty | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Marketplace | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| Department store | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Electronics | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pet | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Arts and crafts | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Commerce platform | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 |
| Payments | 4 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| Consulting | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
- Grocery and delivery has the most retail deals, with 7. Instacart has a deal with each of the three AI companies, and DoorDash, Albertsons, Carrefour Belgium and GS Retail all have grocery apps inside ChatGPT.
- Apparel and footwear and home and home improvement have 6 deals each, and mass merchants have 6, all from Walmart and Target. Beauty has 4, split between Sephora and Ulta Beauty.
- Payment companies and protocol groups account for 11 deals, more than any single retail category. PayPal has deals with all three AI companies, and Visa and Mastercard each have deals with OpenAI and Anthropic.
Retailers and Payment Companies Working With More Than One AI Platform
The tracker includes 31 different partners, not counting the protocol groups. This section lists those that have deals with at least two of the three AI companies.
| Partner | ChatGPT (OpenAI) | Google (Gemini and AI Mode) | Claude (Anthropic) | Platforms |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shopify | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Instacart | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| PayPal | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Target | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Visa | 1 | 2 | 2 | |
| Walmart | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
| Etsy | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| JD Sports | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Lowe's | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Mastercard | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Sephora | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| The Home Depot | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Ulta Beauty | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wayfair | 1 | 1 | 2 |
- 14 of the 31 partners work with more than one AI company. Shopify, Instacart and PayPal have deals with all three.
- Walmart and Target each have two OpenAI deals and one Google deal. Target's Google deal is checkout inside AI Mode and Gemini, while its two ChatGPT deals are an app and a product feed.
- The other 17 partners work with one AI company so far. One of them, Gap, says it wants to work with every platform; its chief technology officer told CNBC that "it's important that we work with all of them."

Disclosed Fees and Values in Agentic Commerce Deals
Almost none of the deals carry a public price. The table lists every fee figure we found.
| Deal | Fee | Source |
|---|---|---|
| OpenAI Instant Checkout, all merchants | Merchants pay a fee on completed purchases; OpenAI has not disclosed the rate | OpenAI, Sept. 29, 2025 |
| OpenAI and Shopify | 4% of sales made through ChatGPT checkout, on top of Shopify fees | The Information, via PYMNTS, Jan. 21, 2026 |
| Google and Shopify (AI Mode and Gemini checkout) | No additional fee, for now | The Information, via PYMNTS, Jan. 21, 2026 |
- 3 of the 55 deals have a reported fee term, and none has a disclosed dollar value. Shopify's reported 4% on ChatGPT checkout sales is the only fee with a published rate.
- Shopify merchants are listed by default on AI platforms that charge no added fee and must opt in to those that do, according to The Information's report.
What Retailers and AI Companies Have Reported About Results
A few companies have published figures on how their agentic commerce deals are performing. Each figure below comes from the company itself.
| Company | Reported Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Walmart | Conversion rates three times lower for purchases made inside ChatGPT than for those sent to Walmart.com | Daniel Danker to WIRED, via Axios, March 24, 2026 |
| Walmart | About 200,000 products made available for purchase inside ChatGPT | Walmart, via CNBC, March 20, 2026 |
| Target | AI-driven traffic to Target up 2,000% in Q1 2026 from a year earlier, vs. nearly 400% for retail sites overall | Target, June 18, 2026 |
| Shopify | Orders attributed to AI searches up 11 times since January 2025; AI-driven traffic up 7 times | Shopify President Harley Finkelstein, Nov. 2025 earnings call, via PYMNTS |
| Anthropic | Carts up to 35% larger and shoppers 60% more likely to complete a purchase with Claude shopping agents | Anthropic, Sept. 2, 2026 |
| Albertsons | 15% of U.S. consumers have used AI tools such as ChatGPT for grocery shopping (Dunnhumby survey cited by Albertsons) | Grocery Dive, Aug. 6, 2026 |
- The figures point in the same direction. AI platforms are sending more shoppers to retailers, while Walmart's data shows shoppers still preferred to finish the purchase on the retailer's own site.
Published Forecasts for Agentic Commerce Spending
Three research firms have published estimates of how much U.S. retail spending AI agents could drive by 2030. They measure different things, so the ranges are wide.
| Firm | Published | 2030 U.S. Estimate | What It Measures |
|---|---|---|---|
| McKinsey & Company | Oct. 2025 | $900 billion to $1 trillion | U.S. B2C retail revenue orchestrated by AI agents (global estimate $3 trillion to $5 trillion) |
| Bain & Company | Dec. 2025 | $300 billion to $500 billion | Purchases initiated, influenced or completed by AI agents, 15% to 25% of U.S. e-commerce |
| Morgan Stanley | Dec. 2025 | $190 billion to $385 billion | Spending by AI shopping agents that search, compare and buy; 10% (base case) to 20% (bull case) of U.S. e-commerce |
- The highest estimate is about five times the lowest. McKinsey counts all retail revenue that agents help steer, while Morgan Stanley counts only purchases agents carry out.
- None of the deals in our tracker came with a reported sales total, so the forecasts cannot yet be checked against actual spending through these partnerships.

What Agentic Commerce Partnerships Mean for Retail in 2027
For retailers, these deals now decide who owns the shopper at the moment of purchase. The deals signed in 2026 mostly keep the retailer as the seller of record, with its own payment page, loyalty program and customer data, which is the reverse of the first Instant Checkout deals in 2025.
The 2026 holiday season is the first with Google's Universal Cart live in the U.S. and with Walmart, Target, Sephora and Ulta Beauty all running their own apps inside ChatGPT, which makes it the first peak season built around retailers' own apps and carts rather than ChatGPT's Instant Checkout.
The larger contest is over standards. OpenAI's Agentic Commerce Protocol, Google's Universal Commerce Protocol and the card networks' agent payment programs each want to become the common way AI agents buy things, and large retailers are adopting more than one of them while no single standard dominates.
Data Collection and Methodology
The Top GEO Agencies research team compiled every agentic commerce deal that OpenAI, Google and Anthropic announced with a retailer, marketplace, commerce platform, payment company or consulting firm from April 30, 2025 through October 20, 2026. Deals were found in the AI companies' own announcements, retailer and payment company press releases, and coverage in Retail Dive, Grocery Dive, Digital Commerce 360, CNBC, Axios, PYMNTS, Modern Retail and Search Engine Journal, and each was checked against the announcement or the first press report. Only OpenAI's ChatGPT, Google's Gemini app and AI Mode in Search, and Anthropic's Claude are covered.
A deal is one dated agreement between one AI company and one partner. A protocol launched with a group of companies, such as Google's Agent Payments Protocol and Universal Commerce Protocol, counts once. A later launch of the same deal is recorded as a status change, not a new deal: Etsy's February 2026 checkout launch in Gemini is counted under its January 2026 Google deal, and Wayfair's UCP checkout is counted under its November 2025 Google deal. A partner that signed a different type of deal with the same AI company is counted again, so Walmart has two OpenAI deals (Instant Checkout in 2025 and its ChatGPT app in 2026), and Shopify has two OpenAI deals and two Anthropic deals.
Deal types: checkout means the AI platform completes the purchase for the shopper, inside the chat or through the platform's own cart; app means the retailer's own assistant or plugin runs inside the AI platform; catalog feed means the retailer sends product data for shopping results; payments or protocol covers card network, wallet and protocol agreements; retailer-built agent covers partners for Anthropic's commerce agent blueprint, which retailers use on their own websites and apps. Status is as of October 20, 2026. Live means the feature has launched; announced means no launch had been confirmed; changed means the deal was tied to ChatGPT's native Instant Checkout, which OpenAI stopped prioritizing on March 24, 2026; ended means the partner confirmed the program stopped.
Excluded are companies that only endorsed a protocol (more than 20 endorsed Google's Universal Commerce Protocol), advertising deals such as Amazon's September 2026 agreement to sell ChatGPT ads through Amazon DSP, cloud contracts in which a retailer uses an AI model only inside its own assistant, and reported talks that produced no announced deal. Quarters are calendar quarters, and Q4 2026 runs through October 20. Fees and values are as reported; none of the deals required a currency conversion, and all figures are in U.S. dollars. Forecasts and company-reported results are quoted from their publishers and were not recalculated.
Sources
- Top GEO Agencies, Agentic Commerce Partnership Tracker: analysis of 55 agentic commerce deals between OpenAI, Google and Anthropic and retailers, commerce platforms and payment companies announced from April 2025 to October 2026, conducted October 2026.
- Visa, Find and Buy with AI: Visa Unveils New Era of Commerce, April 30, 2025
- OpenAI, Buy it in ChatGPT: Instant Checkout and the Agentic Commerce Protocol, Sept. 29, 2025
- CNBC, OpenAI's first try at agentic shopping stumbled. It's trying again, March 20, 2026
- PYMNTS, Shopify Merchants to Pay 4% Fee on ChatGPT Checkout Sales (citing The Information), Jan. 21, 2026
- Stripe, Stripe powers Instant Checkout in ChatGPT and releases Agentic Commerce Protocol codeveloped with OpenAI, Sept. 29, 2025
- OpenAI, Powering Product Discovery in ChatGPT, March 24, 2026
- Mastercard, Making agentic AI commerce a reality with embedded, trusted payments, Sept. 30, 2025
- Walmart, Walmart Partners with OpenAI to Create AI-First Shopping Experiences, Oct. 14, 2025
- The Paypers, Walmart drops OpenAI checkout and deploys Sparky on AI platforms, March 24, 2026
- Salesforce, Salesforce Announces Support for Agentic Commerce Protocol with Stripe, Oct. 14, 2025
- PayPal, OpenAI and PayPal Team Up to Power Instant Checkout and Agentic Commerce in ChatGPT, Oct. 28, 2025
- Target, Target to Launch First-of-its-Kind Conversational, Curated Shopping Experience in ChatGPT, Nov. 19, 2025
- Target, How Target is Shaping Shopping Experiences in Conversational AI, June 18, 2026
- Instacart, Instacart App Launches in OpenAI ChatGPT, Dec. 8, 2025
- Shopify, Introducing Shopify Agentic Storefronts, Dec. 10, 2025
- DoorDash, DoorDash Launches Grocery Shopping App Within ChatGPT, Dec. 17, 2025
- JD Sports Fashion, JD deploys cutting-edge technology to enable direct purchases through AI platforms, Jan. 12, 2026
- Retail Dive, Walmart brings Sparky to ChatGPT as OpenAI rethinks Instant Checkout, March 25, 2026
- Sephora, Sephora App in ChatGPT Brings a New Personalized Beauty Experience, March 24, 2026
- Albertsons Companies, Albertsons Companies Expands AI-Powered Grocery Shopping with New Safeway Plugin in ChatGPT, Aug. 5, 2026
- Grocery Dive, Safeway plugin comes to ChatGPT, Aug. 6, 2026
- Retail Systems, Carrefour Belgium launches ChatGPT shopping assistant, Aug. 25, 2026
- Seoul Economic Daily, GS Retail Links Our Neighborhood GS App to ChatGPT for AI Shopping, Sept. 1, 2026
- Seoul Economic Daily, Gmarket Launches First ChatGPT Plug-in for a Korean Online Marketplace, Sept. 6, 2026
- Chain Store Age, Ulta Beauty personalizes shopping via ChatGPT, Oct. 19, 2026
- Google Cloud, Announcing Agent Payments Protocol (AP2), Sept. 16, 2025
- PayPal, Google and PayPal Forge Multiyear Partnership to Revolutionize Commerce, Sept. 17, 2025
- Google, New tech and tools for retailers to succeed in an agentic shopping era, Jan. 11, 2026
- Google, Google Shopping launches agentic checkout and more AI shopping tools, Nov. 13, 2025
- PYMNTS, Google Launches Agentic Commerce With Etsy and Wayfair, Feb. 11, 2026
- Search Engine Journal, Google's Universal Cart Is Live: How Carts Get To Your Store, Oct. 15, 2026
- Walmart, Walmart and Google Turn AI Discovery Into Effortless Shopping Experiences, Jan. 11, 2026
- The Home Depot, The Home Depot and Google Cloud Launch Agentic AI Tools, Jan. 11, 2026
- CNBC, Gap says it will launch checkout within Google's Gemini, March 24, 2026
- Instacart, Instacart Brings Agentic Grocery Shopping to Gemini, May 19, 2026
- Google, How we're helping retailers thrive with new Universal Commerce Protocol features and AI tools on Google, May 20, 2026
- Instacart, Instacart is now available in Claude, April 23, 2026
- PayPal, PayPal partners with Anthropic to Close the AI Gap for Small Businesses, May 13, 2026
- Anthropic, Building commerce agents with Claude, Sept. 2, 2026
- Digital Commerce 360, Anthropic debuts Claude features focused on agentic commerce, Sept. 2, 2026
- Mastercard, Mastercard gives merchants a simpler way to build, connect and scale AI-powered shopping experiences, Sept. 9, 2026
- Shopify, Add shopping and Shop Pay checkout to any agent with Shop MCP, Oct. 13, 2026
- Anthropic, Shop connector for Claude
- Modern Retail, What went wrong with ChatGPT's Instant Checkout, March 2026
- Axios, Walmart, Gap test AI shopping in ChatGPT and Google Gemini, but split on checkout, March 24, 2026
- McKinsey & Company, The agentic commerce opportunity: How AI agents are ushering in a new era for consumers and merchants, Oct. 2025
- Bain & Company, 2030 Forecast: How Agentic AI Will Reshape US Retail
- Morgan Stanley, Agentic Commerce Impact Could Reach $385 Billion by 2030