AI Super PAC Spending in the 2026 Midterms: Donors, Races, and Ads

A super PAC can raise unlimited sums and spend them on ads for or against candidates, as long as it does not coordinate with their campaigns. Since mid-2025, people and companies in the AI industry have set up several, and two networks on opposite sides of AI regulation now dominate the field. Leading the Future, funded by Andreessen Horowitz and by OpenAI president Greg Brockman and his wife Anna, opposes rules that constrain AI development. Public First, supported by Anthropic, backs AI safeguards. With the US midterm elections on Nov. 3, voters can now see what each side raised and spent.

Our analysts pulled the Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings of 10 committees in three networks: summary reports of receipts and disbursements through Oct. 14, 2026, itemized donors, and 521 independent expenditures reported through Oct. 29. We combined those filings with published reviews of the ads themselves from Bellingcat and Tech Influence Watch. Together, the committees reported $73.5 million spent supporting or opposing 76 candidates.

In the following sections, we compare who funds each network, what each committee raised and spent, how the spending split across committees, races, and months, and what published reviews found in the ads.

Who Funds the AI Super PACs

Leading the Future (LTF) is registered as a super PAC, but it mostly passes money to the committees that buy the ads: Think Big, which targets Democratic voters, and American Mission, which focuses on Republican voters. A smaller committee in the same network, Building the Future, also files independent expenditures. Public First Action is a 501(c)(4) nonprofit that funds three super PACs: the bipartisan Public First PAC, Jobs and Democracy PAC for Democratic candidates, and Defending Our Values PAC for Republican candidates. A third group, Guardrails Alliance, Tomorrow Together, and Guardrails Action, is tracked by Transformer alongside the two larger networks.

Source: FEC filings through Oct. 14, 2026; Anthropic donations are not shown because Public First Action does not report its donors. Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Source: FEC Schedule A filings, downloaded Nov. 2, 2026; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Source: FEC filings for Public First PAC, Jobs and Democracy PAC, and Defending Our Values PAC through Sept. 30, 2026; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Public First Action does not report its donors, so its money enters FEC filings only when it reaches a super PAC. Anthropic announced a $20 million donation to the group on Feb. 12, 2026, and a second $20 million on July 21, bringing its total to $40 million. Anthropic said the second donation is restricted to public education and policy work and cannot be used to influence any candidate election. Separately, six donors who list Anthropic as their employer gave Public First PAC $3,154,900 in 2026.

Guardrails Alliance raised $3.25 million through Oct. 14, $3.17 million of it from individuals and organizations. Transformer's tracker shows Guardrails Action, Inc. as the largest source at $1.89 million, including in-kind support. Tomorrow Together raised $2.50 million, nearly all of it a transfer from Tomorrow Together Action Fund.

Key Findings

• Leading the Future's donor list is short. Of the $75.1 million in contributions it received, $75.0 million came from Andreessen Horowitz and the Brockmans, and Perplexity AI gave the remaining $100,000.
• LTF passed $47.0 million to its two arms, $24.5 million to Think Big and $22.5 million to American Mission, which is 90% of the $52.2 million it disbursed. The arms reported only $0.75 million from other donors, $500,000 from Ronald Conway and $250,000 from Lonsdale Enterprises.

AI Super PAC Finances: Raised, Spent, and Cash on Hand

This section lists each committee's totals for the 2025 to 2026 election cycle from its most recent summary report. Because LTF and Public First PAC pass money to other committees, adding the rows counts some dollars twice.

Source: FEC committee summary data, downloaded Nov. 2, 2026; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Key Findings

• Leading the Future held $23.8 million on Oct. 14, 2.3 times the $10.3 million the other eight committees reported combined at their latest reports.
• Public First's committees spent nearly everything they received. Jobs and Democracy PAC spent $20.07 million of $20.74 million raised (97%), and Defending Our Values PAC spent $7.77 million of $8.41 million (92%).
• Think Big raised $25.03 million and spent $23.09 million, while American Mission raised $23.98 million and spent $19.14 million, leaving $4.83 million in cash.

Independent Expenditures by Committee

An independent expenditure is money a super PAC spends on ads, mail, or other communications that expressly support or oppose a clearly identified candidate. Committees report each one on FEC Schedule E within 24 or 48 hours. This section totals those line items by committee.

Source: FEC Schedule E filings through Oct. 29, 2026; 521 line items; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Source: FEC Schedule E filings; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Key Findings

• Five committees reported more than $6 million: Think Big ($18.56 million), Jobs and Democracy PAC ($18.47 million), American Mission ($16.31 million), Defending Our Values PAC ($7.88 million), and Tomorrow Together ($6.12 million).
• The networks differ in how they spend. 78% of the LTF network's money supported candidates, and its only opposition spending was Think Big's $8.16 million against Alex Bores. The Public First network spent 95% in support, while the Guardrails network spent 94% in opposition.
• American Mission supported 34 candidates and opposed none. Tomorrow Together reported $6.12 million, all opposing six candidates.

Races and Candidates Targeted

This section ranks races by total spending and splits the money by candidate party and by whether it supported or opposed. Party comes from the candidate record on each FEC filing.

Source: FEC Schedule E filings through Oct. 29, 2026; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Source: FEC Schedule E filings through Oct. 29, 2026; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Source: FEC Schedule E filings through Oct. 29, 2026; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

The New York Democratic primary on June 23 was the largest single contest by a wide margin. Micah Lasher won with 38.9% of the vote, and Bores finished second with 34.9%, according to the New York State Board of Elections. Jobs and Democracy PAC's $15.0 million in support and Think Big's $8.2 million in opposition account for nearly all of the race's total.

Key Findings

• The top 10 races took 56% of the money, and 18 of the 71 races received $1 million or more. The committees supported or opposed 59 House candidates and 17 Senate candidates, 53 Republicans and 23 Democrats.
• Dollars were close to even by party among supported candidates: $28.9 million for Democrats and $25.9 million for Republicans. Opposition spending totaled $8.9 million against Democrats and $9.9 million against Republicans.
• Eight races drew money from more than one network. In Arizona's 1st and Montana's 1st, Guardrails Alliance opposed the same candidates American Mission supported, Thomas Feely and Aaron Flint. In Florida's 25th, Defending Our Values supported Scott Singer and opposed Daniel Franzese.

When the Money Was Spent and What It Bought

This section charts spending by the date of each expenditure and then groups the line items by the kind of communication in the filing's description.

Source: FEC Schedule E filings, by expenditure date, through Oct. 29, 2026; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Source: FEC Schedule E filings through Oct. 29, 2026; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Source: FEC Schedule E filings through Oct. 29, 2026; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Three payees, Bryson Gillette (paid by Jobs and Democracy PAC), Lantern Production Consultants (Think Big), and Summit Ridge Media Group (American Mission), received $51.9 million, 71% of all independent expenditures. In May, the Campaign Legal Center filed an FEC complaint alleging that American Mission and Think Big routed payments through shell companies, citing Summit Ridge and Lantern. The FEC has not ruled. A Leading the Future spokesperson called the complaint "a desperate ploy for attention," and a Public First spokesperson denied any involvement in it, according to WIRED as quoted by Bellingcat.

Key Findings

• Spending followed the primary calendar. June was the largest month at $19.1 million, and the Public First network accounted for $11.6 million of it. Primaries took $48.0 million (65%) and general-election races $19.9 million (27%), and runoffs, special elections, and other filings took the remaining $5.6 million.
• October was the second-largest month at $16.3 million. The Guardrails network spent $9.4 million of it, which is 96% of everything that network reported.
• Digital ads took $27.6 million, TV and cable $18.6 million, mail and print $8.0 million, and text messaging $5.8 million. A further $12.7 million (17%) did not say which medium it bought.

What the AI Super PAC Ads Said

FEC filings show what was spent but not what the ads said. Three published reviews cover the ad content. Bellingcat analyzed more than 300 online video ad campaigns paid for by Think Big, American Mission, Jobs and Democracy, and Defending Our Values in Google's Ads Transparency Center, supporting or opposing 40 candidates. Tech Influence Watch tagged 88 ads on the same Google platform from Jan. 21 to Nov. 1, 2026, and a New York Times analysis of 95 video ads from the same four super PACs, using data from the media tracking firm AdImpact, had similar findings. Bellingcat's and Tech Influence Watch's counts cover Google-hosted ads only, not TV, mail, or other social platforms.

A Public First spokesperson told Bellingcat that its aligned PACs "run ads on the issues that matter most immediately to voters in each race," which for most electorates means the economy, affordability, and public safety. Leading the Future, Think Big, and American Mission did not respond to Bellingcat's questions about their advertising.

Source: Tech Influence Watch, AI super PAC ads, accessed Nov. 2, 2026; Google Ads Transparency Center data; Top GEO Agencies analysis.

Key Findings

• Only ads supporting or opposing two of Bellingcat's 40 candidates mentioned AI, and none mentioned data centers. Ads for 29 candidates mentioned economic issues, 16 mentioned immigration or law enforcement, and 17 mentioned Trump or MAGA.
• The same network ran different messages to different voters. Think Big's ad for Jeremy Moss in Michigan talked about standing up to Immigration and Customs Enforcement, while American Mission's ad for Clay Fuller in Georgia focused on securing the southern border.
• New York's 12th District was the exception. Jobs and Democracy PAC ran 152 ads supporting Bores, some mentioning AI safeguards, and Think Big ran 22 ads opposing him that, per Bellingcat, focused on his funding from Anthropic and super PACs and his former employer Palantir rather than his AI stance.

AI Super PAC Spending Entering Election Day

Late spending is still being reported. Independent expenditures of $1,000 or more made in the final 20 days before an election must be filed within 24 hours, and the line items in this report run through Oct. 29.

Leading the Future reported $23.8 million in cash on Oct. 14, and Public First's three super PACs reported $1.8 million between them on Sept. 30. Guardrails Alliance and Tomorrow Together reported $1.7 million in cash on Oct. 14.

Building the Future filed $2.5 million in expenditures for the South Carolina Senate race in October, and its Sept. 30 report showed $0 raised.