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Market Research / GEO/AEO History

Open Questions

2026 and after

Five questions the GEO and AEO field had not settled by the end of October 2026, each tied to dated events: how to measure visibility, what to call the practice, how much it depends on a few platforms, who owns the content, and where optimization becomes manipulation.

By TGA EditorsOctober 30, 20265 min read

By the end of October 2026, GEO and AEO supported software companies, agencies, and a growing body of research, as the earlier chapters of this history describe. Several basic questions were still open. This chapter takes five of them in turn: how visibility in AI answers is measured, what the practice should be called, how much of it depends on decisions made by a few platforms, who has the right to the content that AI systems use, and where optimization ends and manipulation begins. Each section starts from events that happened and reports what the sources say.

Timeline from 2023 to 2026 showing the New York Times lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft, Google's removal of a search parameter used by rank trackers, the Anthropic authors settlement, Perplexity's pause on new advertisers, the BBC and European Broadcasting Union study of AI assistants, the SparkToro consistency study, Microsoft's report on AI Recommendation Poisoning, and cross-motions for summary judgment in the New York Times case
Selected events behind the open questions, December 2023 to September 2026.1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

September 2025 to January 2026: Measurement

The tools described in The Agency Gold Rush rest on the assumption that visibility in an AI answer can be counted. Two events in this period tested that assumption from different directions. In September 2025, Google stopped supporting a search parameter, &num=100, that rank-tracking software used to retrieve a hundred results in one request. Semrush wrote on September 15 that its top 10 and top 20 data stayed fully intact,2 and Ahrefs wrote on September 18 that the parameter no longer worked. Ahrefs restored top-100 tracking for enterprise customers on October 8 and for all keywords in Rank Tracker on November 14.9 A platform's decision about a technical detail had changed what the tools could report.

On January 28, 2026, Rand Fishkin published a SparkToro study in which 600 volunteers ran 12 prompts through ChatGPT, Claude, and Google's AI Overviews and AI Mode, for a total of 2,961 responses. The chance that ChatGPT or Google's AI would give the same list of brands in any two responses was below one in 100, and the chance of the same order was about one in 1,000. Fishkin wrote that a brand's percentage of appearances across many runs of the same prompt was probably a reasonable measure of its prominence, and that rankings were close to random.6

SparkToro Publishes a Study of AI Recommendation Consistency

Top of SparkToro's January 28, 2026, study on how inconsistently AI tools recommend brands and products
The SparkToro study of repeated AI recommendations, January 28, 2026.6

Measurement of clicks, covered in Google Answers Back, and studies of which sources AI systems cite, covered in The Citation Economy, used other methods and measured other things than the two studies above.

2023 to 2026: What to Call the Practice

The vocabulary changed with the audience. The Origins of GEO shows that the exact phrase generative engine optimization appeared in one arXiv paper in 2023, none from January 2024 through June 2025, and 18 in each of two quarters of 2026, while only three papers spell out AEO in full, all from 2026.10 Exalt Growth's expert guide credits Jason Barnard of Kalicube with coining AEO years before GEO became common.11 Wikipedia lists large language model optimization, artificial intelligence optimization, and AI SEO as other terms for the same practice.12

Companies chose different words in their own announcements. Microsoft Advertising's January 6, 2026, guide was titled as a guide to GEO.13 HubSpot described its agreement to acquire XFunnel in October 2025 in terms of AEO,14 and Omnicom Media Group's October 2025 report used GEO.15 Adobe's April 2026 release listed SEO, GEO, and agentic search optimization as separate solutions.16 In May 2026, Google's guide argued that optimizing for generative AI search is still SEO.17 The fuller account of the newest of these terms is in Agentic Search Optimization.

July 2025 to March 2026: Dependence on a Few Platforms

Several decisions by platforms between mid-2025 and spring 2026 changed what other businesses could do. Cloudflare began blocking AI crawlers by default on July 1, 2025, which changed which sites those crawlers could read.18 Perplexity stopped accepting new advertisers in October 2025, according to Adweek.4 In March 2026, OpenAI confirmed it was ending Instant Checkout in favor of retailer apps after Etsy, Walmart, and Shopify had lined up to sell inside ChatGPT, and Etsy told Modern Retail that the feature had not produced a large volume of sales.19,20 Google's September 2025 parameter change, described above, altered what rank trackers could see.9

Each decision was announced by the platform and affected companies that had built products or budgets around the previous behavior. The reversals were not all in one direction. Google announced ads in AI Mode in May 2025 and new AI Mode ad formats in May 2026,21,22 and OpenAI's ChatGPT Ads reached 89 countries by October 21, 2026, as described in Advertising Inside the Answer.23

December 2023 to September 2026: Licensing and Copyright

The question of who may use published content to train and ground AI systems has two tracks: agreements and lawsuits. The Citation Economy covers the licensing agreements, including the Associated Press and News Corp agreements with OpenAI,24,25 and The ChatGPT Shock covers The New York Times suit of December 27, 2023.1 Google Answers Back covers the suit that a publisher filed against Google in September 2025.26 TechCrunch reported in November 2024 that News Corp's Dow Jones and the New York Post had sued Perplexity.27

Two later events show how far these disputes had come without a final answer on AI answers themselves. In September 2025, Anthropic agreed to a $1.5 billion settlement of a class action by book authors. The Authors Guild reported that about 500,000 titles qualified and that rightsholders could expect at least $3,000 per title before costs and fees. Judge William Alsup certified the class only for the alleged piracy of books and not for AI training, and the Authors Guild noted that his fair use ruling on training applies only to the three plaintiffs.3 On September 4, 2026, the parties in the New York Times case against OpenAI and Microsoft filed cross-motions for summary judgment on fair use before Judge Sidney Stein, and a ruling was still pending, according to AI Lawsuit Tracker.8 Cloudflare's pay per crawl beta of July 2025 offered publishers a third approach, which is a price per crawl.28

April 2024 to February 2026: Optimization and Manipulation

The 2024 papers described in The Origins of GEO showed that text could be written to push language models toward a chosen product.29,30,31 The commercial practice began to resemble those experiments in 2025 and 2026. On December 4, 2025, Ahrefs published a study of "best X" lists in ChatGPT's sources, and on December 12, Fishkin wrote that it showed how to effectively spam your way into AI mentions.32,33

On February 10, 2026, Microsoft's security team reported that, over 60 days, it had found more than 50 distinct prompts from 31 companies in more than a dozen industries that tried to influence an AI assistant's memory. The prompts used "Summarize with AI" buttons and crafted links to instruct an assistant to remember a company as a trusted source or to recommend it first, and Microsoft called the technique AI Recommendation Poisoning.7

Microsoft Reports AI Recommendation Poisoning

Top of Microsoft's February 10, 2026, security blog post on AI Recommendation Poisoning
Microsoft Security Blog on AI Recommendation Poisoning, February 10, 2026.7

Accuracy is a separate issue from manipulation. On October 22, 2025, the BBC and the European Broadcasting Union published a study in which journalists from 22 public service media organizations in 18 countries evaluated more than 3,000 responses from ChatGPT, Copilot, Gemini, and Perplexity. They found that 45 percent of answers had at least one significant issue, 31 percent had serious sourcing problems, and 20 percent had major accuracy issues, with Gemini worst at 76 percent.5

Bar chart of results from the BBC and European Broadcasting Union study of AI assistants and news: 45 percent of answers had a significant issue, 31 percent had a serious sourcing problem, 20 percent had a major accuracy issue, and 76 percent of Gemini's answers had a significant issue
Share of AI assistant answers about the news with problems, BBC and European Broadcasting Union, October 2025.5

Google's guide treats optimizing for AI features as a form of SEO,17 while Microsoft's report labels the memory prompts as manipulation.7

Key Organizations

Key Organizations in Open Questions, 2023 to 2026

OrganizationRole in this periodKey dates
AhrefsReported on Google's parameter change and restored top-100 tracking.9September 18 to November 14, 2025
AnthropicAgreed to a $1.5 billion settlement with book authors.3September 2025
BBC and European Broadcasting UnionEvaluated more than 3,000 AI assistant answers about the news.5October 22, 2025
CloudflareBlocked AI crawlers by default and began a pay per crawl beta.18,28July 1, 2025
MicrosoftReported prompts that tried to influence AI assistant memory.7February 10, 2026
OpenAIEnded Instant Checkout; defendant in the New York Times case.19,8March 2026; September 4, 2026
SemrushReported on Google's parameter change.2September 15, 2025
SparkToroPublished a study of repeated AI recommendations.6January 28, 2026
The New York TimesSued OpenAI and Microsoft; cross-motions for summary judgment followed.1,8December 27, 2023, and September 4, 2026

Further reading

Notes

  1. "New York Times Sues OpenAI and Microsoft Over Use of Copyrighted Work," The New York Times, December 27, 2023. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/27/business/media/new-york-times-open-ai-microsoft-lawsuit.html
  2. "Google Changes to SERP Data Collection: What You Need to Know," Semrush, September 15, 2025. https://www.semrush.com/news/424322-google-changes-to-serp-data-collection-what-you-need-to-know/
  3. "What Authors Need to Know About the Anthropic Settlement," The Authors Guild, read October 30, 2026. https://authorsguild.org/advocacy/artificial-intelligence/what-authors-need-to-know-about-the-anthropic-settlement/
  4. "Perplexity Pauses New Advertising Deals to Reassess Ambitions," Adweek, October 9, 2025. https://www.adweek.com/media/perplexity-pauses-new-advertising-deals-to-reassess-ambitions/
  5. "Largest study of its kind shows AI assistants misrepresent news content 45% of the time, regardless of language or territory," BBC and European Broadcasting Union, October 22, 2025. https://www.bbc.com/mediacentre/2025/new-ebu-research-ai-assistants-news-content
  6. Rand Fishkin, "NEW Research: AIs are highly inconsistent when recommending brands or products; marketers should take care when tracking AI visibility," SparkToro, January 28, 2026. https://sparktoro.com/blog/new-research-ais-are-highly-inconsistent-when-recommending-brands-or-products-marketers-should-take-care-when-tracking-ai-visibility/
  7. "Manipulating AI memory for profit: The rise of AI Recommendation Poisoning," Microsoft Security Blog, February 10, 2026. https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/security/blog/2026/02/10/ai-recommendation-poisoning/
  8. "NYT v. OpenAI Lawsuit: Status & Rulings (2026)," AI Lawsuit Tracker, read October 30, 2026. https://ailawsuittracker.com/cases/new-york-times-v-openai/
  9. "An update on recent Google changes to SERP monitoring," Ahrefs, September 18, 2025, with updates through November 14, 2025. https://ahrefs.com/blog/google-serp-changes-update/
  10. arXiv API query for the exact phrases "generative engine optimization" and the spelled-out form of AEO in titles and abstracts, run October 29, 2026. https://info.arxiv.org/help/api/index.html
  11. Jack Boutchard, "Top 12 GEO Experts for SaaS in 2026," Exalt Growth, last updated February 11, 2026. https://www.exaltgrowth.com/generative-engine-optimization/top-geo-experts
  12. Wikipedia, "Generative engine optimization," read October 29, 2026. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generative_engine_optimization
  13. Microsoft Advertising, "From Discovery to Influence: A Guide to GEO," January 6, 2026. https://about.ads.microsoft.com/en/blog/post/january-2026/from-discovery-to-influence-a-guide-to-geo
  14. "HubSpot to Acquire XFunnel," HubSpot, October 2025. https://www.hubspot.com/company-news/hubspot-to-acquire-xfunnel
  15. "New Report From Omnicom Media Group Provides a Roadmap for Marketers in the Brave New World of Gen AI Search," PR Newswire, October 7, 2025. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/report-omnicom-media-group-provides-171500493.html
  16. "Adobe Completes Semrush Acquisition, Strengthening CX Enterprise with Enhanced Brand Visibility Capabilities," Adobe, April 28, 2026. https://news.adobe.com/news/2026/04/adobe-completes-semrush-acquisition.html
  17. Google Search Central, guide to optimizing for generative AI features in Search, May 2026. https://developers.google.com/search/docs/fundamentals/ai-optimization-guide
  18. "Cloudflare Just Changed How AI Crawlers Scrape the Internet-at-Large; Permission-Based Approach Makes Way for A New Business Model," Cloudflare press release, July 1, 2025. https://www.cloudflare.com/press/press-releases/2025/cloudflare-just-changed-how-ai-crawlers-scrape-the-internet-at-large/
  19. Annie Palmer and Ashley Capoot, "OpenAI's first crack at online shopping stumbled. It's preparing for the next wave," CNBC, March 20, 2026. https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/20/open-ai-agentic-shopping-etsy-shopify-walmart-amazon.html
  20. "What went wrong with ChatGPT's Instant Checkout," Modern Retail, March 27, 2026. https://www.modernretail.co/technology/what-went-wrong-with-chatgpts-instant-checkout/
  21. "Google Marketing Live 2025: News and Updates," Google Ads & Commerce Blog, May 21, 2025. https://blog.google/products/ads-commerce/google-marketing-live-2025/
  22. "New ad formats built with Gemini coming to Google Search," Google Ads & Commerce Blog, May 20, 2026. https://blog.google/products/ads-commerce/google-marketing-live-search-ads/
  23. "ChatGPT Ads expands to 26 new countries as over 100,000 advertisers have used the platform," OpenAI, October 21, 2026. https://openai.com/index/chatgpt-ads-expands-26-new-countries/
  24. "AP, Open AI agree to share select news content and technology in new collaboration," The Associated Press, July 13, 2023. https://www.ap.org/media-center/press-releases/2023/ap-open-ai-agree-to-share-select-news-content-and-technology-in-new-collaboration/
  25. "A landmark multi-year global partnership with News Corp," OpenAI, May 22, 2024. https://openai.com/index/news-corp-and-openai-sign-landmark-multi-year-global-partnership/
  26. Anthony Ha, "Rolling Stone owner Penske Media sues Google over AI summaries," TechCrunch, September 14, 2025. https://techcrunch.com/2025/09/14/rolling-stone-owner-penske-media-sues-google-over-ai-summaries/
  27. Kyle Wiggers, "Perplexity brings ads to its platform," TechCrunch, November 12, 2024. https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/12/perplexity-brings-ads-to-its-platform/
  28. Will Allen and Simon Newton, "Introducing pay per crawl: Enabling content owners to charge AI crawlers for access," Cloudflare Blog, July 1, 2025. https://blog.cloudflare.com/introducing-pay-per-crawl/
  29. Aounon Kumar and Himabindu Lakkaraju, "Manipulating Large Language Models to Increase Product Visibility," arXiv:2404.07981, April 11, 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2404.07981
  30. Samuel Pfrommer, Yatong Bai, Tanmay Gautam, and Somayeh Sojoudi, "Ranking Manipulation for Conversational Search Engines," arXiv:2406.03589, June 5, 2024; EMNLP 2024. https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.03589
  31. Fredrik Nestaas, Edoardo Debenedetti, and Florian Tramèr, "Adversarial Search Engine Optimization for Large Language Models," arXiv:2406.18382, June 26, 2024; ICLR 2025. https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.18382
  32. Glen Allsopp, "Do Self-Promotional \"Best\" Lists Boost ChatGPT Visibility? Study of 26,283 Source URLs," Ahrefs, December 4, 2025. https://ahrefs.com/blog/best-lists-research/
  33. "AI Assistants Keep Turning to \"Best\" Lists, New Study Shows," Stan Ventures, December 12, 2025, quoting a post by Rand Fishkin. https://www.stanventures.com/news/ai-assistants-keep-turning-to-best-lists-new-study-shows-6261/